by RICHMOND, Virginia — As September approaches and meteorological fall begins, weather experts are closely monitoring a tug-of-war between warm and cool signals that could define the month’s climate trends across the United States. While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts warmer-than-average conditions in its latest outlook, several global forecasting models hint at a different picture, suggesting that much of the country may not heat up as strongly as anticipated.
Conflicting Forecasts: NOAA vs. Global Models
The NOAA September outlook leans toward widespread warmth, highlighting the Rockies, Southwest, and New England as regions most likely to see above-average temperatures. Importantly, NOAA projects that no region across the Lower 48 will experience a colder-than-normal September.
In contrast, leading computer models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continue to show signs of troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. This type of weather pattern is often linked to cooler air masses and has already contributed to one of the coolest ends to summer since the 1980s.
The discrepancy between the NOAA forecast and these models reflects the complexity of seasonal transitions, especially during months like September when summer warmth often collides with early autumn cool spells.
Precipitation Outlook: Southeast, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic in Focus
On the precipitation side, NOAA highlights increased rain chances across the Southeast, Florida, and the mid-Atlantic. This pattern is likely tied to stalled frontal boundaries and the potential for heightened tropical activity, both of which tend to increase rainfall during early fall.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest may also see wetter-than-usual conditions as the region shifts from its typically dry summer into the start of the rainy season.
Despite these pockets of wetter weather, NOAA’s broader outlook suggests that much of the country will end up with average or below-average precipitation totals for the month. That trend could significantly influence the upcoming fall foliage season, as rainfall levels play a major role in determining how vibrant leaf colors appear.
Impact on Fall Foliage
The process of leaves changing color is primarily driven by shorter daylight hours, but cloud cover, temperature patterns, and drought conditions also play critical roles in how brilliant the reds, yellows, and oranges become.
When trees lose chlorophyll, the green pigment fades, and other hues emerge. Warm days paired with cool nights usually produce the most striking displays of fall color. However, excessive heat or dry conditions can dull the vibrancy or shorten the season altogether.
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If NOAA’s warmer projection plays out, experts say that much of the country may experience what meteorologists call a “fake fall” — a temporary cool spell followed by a return of summer-like warmth in mid-to-late September. This could delay the onset of peak foliage across many regions.
Why September Forecasts Are Challenging
Meteorologists caution that September is one of the most difficult months to predict accurately, alongside December and March. These transitional months straddle two seasons, with rapid shifts in jet stream patterns and oceanic influences like El Niño or La Niña.
In fact, NOAA’s August 2025 forecast proved partially accurate. While it correctly identified warmer-than-average conditions in the Southwest and New England, it underestimated the extent of the cooler-than-normal weather east of the Mississippi River. That unexpected cool pattern could persist into early September, depending on how the troughing develops.
Specialized Viewing Tools in Virginia
Despite the uncertainty in the forecast, parks across Virginia are preparing for visitors hoping to enjoy the seasonal transition. Specialized viewfinders have been installed in some locations to help guests better observe changing leaf colors — particularly useful for those who have difficulty distinguishing between subtle hues.
These efforts underscore just how much anticipation surrounds the fall season, both for residents and for the tourism industry, which relies heavily on foliage-related travel and activities.
The Bottom Line
For now, the September 2025 weather outlook remains split:
- NOAA is leaning strongly toward warmer-than-average conditions nationwide.
- Computer models like GFS and ECMWF continue to show support for a cooler, trough-driven pattern in the East.
- Rainfall chances are higher in the Southeast, Florida, mid-Atlantic, and Pacific Northwest, but much of the U.S. could still see average or below-average totals.
Whether September delivers a “fake fall” followed by more warmth or a continued cool pattern will depend on how these conflicting signals resolve in the weeks ahead.
Share Your Thoughts
Do you think September will feel more like lingering summer or an early taste of fall in your area? Share your thoughts in the comments and join the discussion at ibwhsmag.com.
